Ocean forecasting

With the Forecasting Ocean Assimilation Model (FOAM) and Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory Coastal Ocean Modelling System (POLCOMS), we are able to make predictions of the 3-dimensional properties (temperature, salinity, currents) of the oceans and of sea ice. The predictions range from the global oceans (at 1 degree horizontal resolution) to coastal models around the UK, or elsewhere (at 1 nautical mile resolution). At higher resolutions, the models are able to resolve ocean eddies. All resolutions of POLCOMS also include tidal flow around the coastline.

Wave forecasting

We run wave models to provide predictions of wave conditions, globally and around the UK. Work carried out under the EU MAXWAVE project has led to the development of improved diagnostics of occurrence of extreme or damaging waves at sea. At low frequencies, swell can cause enhanced vessel motion. Using ray tracing models site-specific forecasts of near-shore wave conditions can be made.

Ecosystem modelling

We are applying carbon-cycle and biogeochemical models for both the open ocean and UK waters. Through inclusion of the Hadley Centre Ocean Carbon Cycle (HadOCC) model in FOAM, we are able to make predictions of biological parameters for the global oceans. For UK and surrounding waters we are working on the coupled POLCOMS-ERSEM system and developing new products in support of the ecosystem-based approach to managing the marine environment which is being advocated by European governments. ERSEM is a generic model which includes all those processes which significantly influence ecosystem dynamics, and provides outputs which are aligned to OSPAR (Oslo-Paris) convention requirements. Such predictions also have the potential to be used for predicting harmful algal blooms.

Storm surge forecasting

The North Sea storm surge of 1953 caused disastrous flooding which led to pioneering developments in numerical modelling. Nowadays, tide-surge models are routinely used to forecast storm surges up to two days ahead along the UK coastline. This surge prediction system is a prime example of successful collaboration between the Met Office and POL, where research led to a national forecasting service. Forecasts are made four times per day and results are transmitted to the Environment Agency and the Scottish Environmental Protection Agency in order to provide early warnings of coastal flooding and to indicate when it is necessary to close the Thames Barrier.

More details about these forecasts.